Over 70% of Porto University Students Consider Emigrating: Is Portugal Failing Its Youth?

The Alarming Trend of Youth Emigration

A recent study from the Centro de Estudos da Federação Académica do Porto (CEFAP) reveals that only 10% of higher education students in Porto are certain they will stay in Portugal for work and life. Francisco Porto Fernandes, president of the Federação Académica do Porto (FAP), describes this as the most shocking statistic. Most students surveyed are contemplating emigration or have already made that decision.

The data indicates that over 73% of students enrolled in Porto's higher education institutions have a high certainty or probability of emigrating upon graduation. Many of those considering emigration plan to do so for a medium (5-10 years) or long-term (10-25 years). Porto Fernandes emphasizes that this represents a lost generation.

Factors Behind Emigration

The decision to emigrate is primarily linked to the desire for better living conditions, including higher salaries, career progression, and increased purchasing power. Porto Fernandes asserts that “Portugal is not a country for young people.”

In addition to better conditions abroad, the high cost of living in Portugal and the ongoing housing crisis contribute significantly to this trend. Many young people are facing a severe problem of emancipation, often leaving their parents' homes much later than desired. In many instances, emigration is seen as the only solution.

Preferred Destinations

The countries most favored by these young potential emigrants include those associated with higher salary levels such as the United Kingdom, Switzerland, Netherlands, Germany, and Luxembourg. Additionally, Spain and France are also on the list due to their geographical proximity.

The study surveyed 375 students for the academic year 2023/2024 with a margin of error of 5%, conducted by researchers from the University of Porto. Porto Fernandes notes that this sample is representative of national reality, indicating that Lisbon has slightly lower emigration intentions due to more job opportunities.

Economic Impact of Youth Emigration

The study highlights that the net budgetary cost of emigration of qualified young Portuguese is substantial. The most conservative estimate suggests a loss of €44 billion over 45 years, equating to about €1 billion per year if only students certain of emigrating are considered. This figure more than doubles when including those contemplating emigration, potentially reaching €95 billion over the same period.

The negative effects of youth emigration will likely include a loss of human capital, reduced productivity, and adverse demographic impacts, further contributing to the country's aging population.

Government Response

The data was shared with the government and political parties, as the main parties are not effectively engaging in dialogue to implement necessary reforms. According to Porto Fernandes, while there are isolated measures aimed at addressing the issue, such as the IRS Jovem, what is truly needed is a structural economic reform to retain talent and drive progress. He reiterates that youth emigration is not just a youth problem; it is a national issue.

The study also notes that the government's actions to counteract the negative trends of qualified youth emigration have been insufficient.