Political Trust in Portugal: Montenegro Outshines Pedro Nuno Despite Honesty Concerns

Declining Perception of Honesty

The perception of honesty regarding Prime Minister Luís Montenegro has deteriorated in recent weeks. According to a survey by the Catholic University, commissioned by Público, RTP, and Antena 1, voters now view the Prime Minister less favorably than they did a year ago. However, when directly compared to Pedro Nuno Santos, there is no doubt: Montenegro surpasses Santos in all measured indicators.

Comparison Highlights

In the survey, Montenegro is viewed as:

• More competent: 44% vs. 31%
• More honest: 35% vs. 32%
• More reliable: 40% vs. 34%
• Better prepared: 46% vs. 31%

Despite these advantages, the recent political crisis has led to a decline in Montenegro's honesty and reliability scores, even as he remains the preferred choice among voters.

Growing Confidence Amidst Crisis

Interestingly, since February 2024, Montenegro has shown significant growth in competence and preparation indicators, while Pedro Nuno Santos has seen a decline. This suggests that, despite condemning Montenegro's behavior, voters still perceive him as the right man for the job as elections approach.

A recent Intercampus survey shows that Montenegro is preferred over Santos in various personal trust scenarios, including:

• Partnership: 24.1% vs. 9.3%
• Lending money: 11.7% vs. 7.3%
• Buying a used car: 18.2% vs. 15.4%
• Discussing international politics: 31.1% vs. 20.7%
• Childcare: 16.4% vs. 13.7%
• Dinner invitation: 24.3% vs. 20.7%

Strategic Insights

Advisors to Montenegro are closely monitoring these indicators, believing that undecided voters trust him more than Santos. This trend has persisted since last year's elections and has even strengthened despite the Spinumviva scandal.

A social-democrat leader remarked, "Pedro Nuno Santos is our lifeline. As long as he leads the PS, it’s hard to lose. If this crisis had involved another opposition leader..." highlighting the challenges Santos faces in shaking off his negative image.

Economic Growth Perception

According to the Público survey, when asked who is more capable of promoting economic growth, 50% of respondents chose Montenegro compared to 30% for Santos. Montenegro also outperforms Santos in addressing issues like healthcare and housing.

This survey was conducted by CESOP—Catholic University of Portugal from March 17 to 26, 2025, with a maximum margin of error of 2.8%.