Portugal Faces Critical Teacher Shortage: 39,000 Needed by 2034, But Only 20,000 Graduates Expected

Portugal's education system is bracing for a severe teacher shortage, with a new study revealing that schools will need to recruit 39,000 teachers by 2034/2035 to replace retiring educators, but current graduation rates will only supply 20,000. This alarming gap was highlighted in the "Study on Diagnosis of Teacher Needs from 2025 to 2034," presented in Lisbon.

Key Findings from the Study

• Student numbers are projected to drop by 5%, while the teacher workforce could shrink by 37% due to retirements.
• Out of the current 122,000 teachers, only about 76,000 are expected to remain active by 2034/2035.
• To address this, approximately 3,800 new teachers must be hired annually to cover the departures.

Regional Disparities in Teacher Demand

The national figures mask significant regional variations: the north and center of Portugal are likely to see fewer students, but the Lisbon Metropolitan Area will require more teachers, with a projected 1% increase in student numbers there.

Insufficient Graduate Output

Margarida Rodrigues, Director-General of Studies, Planning, and Assessment (DGEPA), emphasized that an analysis of teacher training courses shows only 20,000 graduates are expected by 2024/2025, falling short of needs. Currently, for every 100 training spots, only about 50 graduates emerge, due to 68% of spots being filled and a 73% completion rate among enrolled students.

Government Initiatives to Tackle the Shortage

In response, the Ministry of Education, Science, and Innovation (MECI) has signed protocols with eleven higher education institutions to boost teacher training. Key measures include:

• Allocating €27 million by 2031 for initial training programs, with increased funding per student.
• Opening 9,677 new training spots by 2029/2030, a 15% increase over current numbers, with half located in Lisbon, Setúbal, and Algarve regions.
• A partnership with the Open University offering free two-year courses for teachers hired under special external competitions, aiming to upskill existing educators.

Long-Term Implications and Minister's Perspective

Education Minister Fernando Alexandre warned that the teacher shortage "will persist for decades," with about 4,000 teachers retiring annually over the next 25 years. He stressed the profession's critical role, calling it "the mother of all professions" and cautioning that undervaluing it could have severe consequences for society.

These efforts are designed to combat the aging teaching workforce and ensure a steady supply of qualified educators for Portugal's future.