Chega's Rising Influence: How Portugal's Far-Right Could Shape Key State Positions

The PS still holds the lead (for now, with the same number of deputies and more votes), but the most likely scenario is that the distribution of deputies from the emigration constituency could make Chega the largest opposition bloc. This involves just four deputies, but electing one or two more than the PS could mean the entry or strengthening of the party led by André Ventura in several regime bodies. From overseeing secret services to the Council of State, from the presidency of the CES to the Superior Council of Magistracy and even in the selection of judges for the Constitutional Court.

Some of Chega's presences in these bodies are almost automatically acquired by the number of mandates, others depend on the AD seeking other majorities (which exist). The management of the budgetary process or the second vice-presidency of the AR are practically guaranteed with a Chega victory in the emigration constituencies.

Presiding Over the OE Committee and the Second Vice-Presidency of the AR

If it is confirmed that Chega becomes the largest bloc, it will be able to choose the presidency of the Budget and Finance Committee. The presidencies of the committees are distributed according to the number of deputies (Chega had three, now it will necessarily have more), but there are two that are "traditionally" predefined: the presidency of the first committee (Constitutional Affairs, Rights, Freedoms, and Guarantees) is usually for the "majority parliamentary group or the one that supports the Government," while the "largest opposition parliamentary group chooses the presidency of the Committee with competence in financial and budgetary matters." In this case, it would be Chega. After the PCP's rejection motion of the Government's program, the next moment of parliamentary tension will be the approval of the State Budget for 2026, and there, the entire voting and generality process should be managed by a Chega deputy.

The fact of being the second largest bloc will also give Chega the possibility of having the second vice-presidency of the Assembly of the Republic. This will allow the deputy indicated by Chega (who will probably be Diogo Pacheco Amorim) to be the second to replace the president of the Assembly (right after the first 'vice', indicated by the AD) in their absence. André Ventura may always want to assert his negotiating strength and try to propose a president of the AR from Chega with a mandate divided in two, but this should not have much viability, since for the president of the AR, only an absolute majority of the votes of the deputies in effective functions is needed. And, in the current context — despite the vote being secret — it is easy to anticipate that the PS will be willing to approve the name proposed by the AD.

Ventura May Aim for Second Place in the Council of State

The choice of the five members elected by Parliament for the Council of State should also undergo changes compared to tradition. In the last legislature, the three largest parliamentary groups presented a joint list that reflected the correlation of forces – four members divided by the most voted party and the opposition leader (PSD and PS, who had been close) and one chosen by the third largest bloc (Chega).

However, in the legislature that is now ending — despite criticism from the Liberal Initiative, the Left Bloc, and Livre — PS and PSD agreed to integrate a joint list with Chega, but this time the party of André Ventura will want to indicate two names, leaving only one vacancy for the Socialist Party.

Even so, if there is no agreement and the three largest parties proceed to present separate lists, the arithmetic may allow that the 5th elected member is from the AD and not from Chega, because the result is determined based on the Hondt method and the voting of smaller parties like the Liberal Initiative or Livre can turn the tables on André Ventura.

In 2022, when Chega elected 12 deputies, becoming the third largest bloc, although far behind the PSD and PS, André Ventura insisted on presenting a list separate from the two largest parties, but at the time he did not manage to elect any name. This time, on its own list, Chega can guarantee electing a name and may even, with good results in the emigration constituency and the AD's agreement, get another.

The vote may still allow that, in that "proportionality", the AD understands (based on the mandates it may get) that it is entitled to the third member indicated by the AR for the Council of State. In that case, there could be an arm wrestling between the AD and Chega to decide that fifth element. In that case, there may be separate lists for each to try to impose their choice and how the remaining parties position themselves may be decisive. There is always the possibility, which is the most traditional, of having an agreement — as indeed there was even between PSD, PS, and Chega even with Pedro Nuno Santos leading the party.

During the geringonça, António Costa took advantage of this election to give a signal to the agreement made with the Left Bloc and the PCP, presenting a list of names from the left, with Carlos César, Francisco Louçã (BE), and Domingos Abrantes (BE). At the time, the PSD and the CDS presented an autonomous list, which elected two names. The AD does not have that relationship with Chega, but has maintained a strictly institutional interpretation regarding the names that Chega has the right to indicate through parliament.