Portugal's Political Shake-Up: Centre-Right Leads as Far-Right Surges to Record Highs

Portugal's political landscape is undergoing a significant transformation as the centre-right Democratic Alliance (AD), under the leadership of caretaker Prime Minister Luís Montenegro, is poised to win the country's third snap election in three years. However, the AD is expected to fall short of a majority once again. Meanwhile, the far-right Chega party is making headlines with projections suggesting it could capture a record 20% of the vote.

The latest polls from Portugal's main television channels—SIC, RTP, and TVI—show the AD leading with 29% to 35.1% of the vote. The Socialist party (PS) and Chega are in a tight race for second place, with the PS at 19.4% to 26% and Chega at 19.5% to 25.5%. These figures indicate a potential repeat of the AD's performance in the March 2024 election, where it secured 28.8% of the vote.

Chega's rise is particularly noteworthy, marking a dramatic increase from its 7.2% share in the 2022 election. The party, led by former football pundit André Ventura, has capitalized on widespread dissatisfaction with mainstream parties amid ongoing challenges such as a housing crisis, soaring living costs, and strained public services.

The election was called after Montenegro's minority government faced a confidence vote in March, amidst growing scrutiny over a data protection consultancy he founded. Despite denying any wrongdoing, Montenegro's government lost the vote, leading to this snap election.

Key campaign issues have included housing, public services, safety, and immigration—a focal point for Chega. The caretaker government's recent announcement to expel 18,000 irregular migrants has been seen as an attempt to appeal to far-right sentiments.

Montenegro and PS leader Pedro Nuno Santos have both emphasized the importance of voter turnout for stability and democratic respect. Meanwhile, Chega's campaign has been marred by scandals, including corruption and ethical breaches among its members.

Montenegro has ruled out any coalition with Chega, citing the party's unreliability and unsuitability for governance. The Liberal Initiative party has also rejected supporting Chega, leaving the AD likely to govern without a majority.

Ventura's health concerns added drama to the campaign's final days, but he urged voters to focus on the future of democracy rather than his personal condition.