A recent poll by CESOP - Universidade Católica Portuguesa for RTP forecasts a dramatic shift in Portugal's political landscape. The Aliança Democrática (AD) is projected to win with 29% to 34% of the votes, securing between 85 to 96 parliamentary seats. The Partido Socialista (PS) trails in second place with 21% to 26%, but faces a serious challenge from the Chega party, which is hot on their heels with 20% to 24%.
Key Highlights from the Poll:
- Iniciativa Liberal emerges as the fourth political force, capturing 4% to 7% of the votes (6 to 12 seats).
- Livre shows significant growth, with 3% to 6% and could secure 4 to 10 seats.
- CDU, Bloco de Esquerda, and PAN follow with smaller shares, while Juntos Pelo Povo might elect a single deputy.
Historical Context: Last year, AD narrowly defeated PS by 28.02% to 28%, with Chega as a distant third at 18.07%. This year's projections suggest a much tighter race, indicating a potential reshuffling of Portugal's political deck.
Methodology: Conducted on May 18, 2025, this survey targeted voters from fifty parishes across Portugal, ensuring a representative sample. With 39,103 valid responses and a 68.3% response rate, the poll offers a credible glimpse into the electorate's current mood.
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