Final Poll Shock: AD Widens Gap Over PS as Chega Surges in Campaign Climax

In the latest daily poll by Pitagórica for TSF/JN/TVI/CNN Portugal, the AD coalition (PSD/CDS) has significantly pulled ahead of the PS (Socialist Party), now leading by approximately eight percentage points. The AD has seen a 1.3 percentage point jump, securing 33.2% of voting intentions, while the PS has made a modest recovery of 0.4 percentage points to 25.6%.

Despite this late surge, both the AD and PS are ending the campaign with lower numbers than they started. In contrast, Chega has enjoyed a nearly consistent rise, gaining almost 4 percentage points over the past weeks to reach 19.2%—their best performance in the campaign.

The IL (Liberal Initiative) concludes with 5.8%, showing some decline but still poised to outperform last year's results. Livre follows with 5.1%, marking a slight drop of 0.4 percentage points from the previous day. The CDU (Communist Party) finishes worse than it began, with only 3% of voting intentions, while the Bloco de Esquerda (Left Bloc) dips by 0.4 percentage points to 2.2%. The PAN (People-Animals-Nature) remains on uncertain ground with 1.3%, questioning their re-election chances.