Porto Mayoral Race in Dead Heat: New Poll Shows Neck-and-Neck Battle Between Pedro Duarte and Manuel Pizarro

Porto Mayoral Election Poll Reveals Tight Contest

With just twelve days to go until the local elections, the race for Porto's City Hall remains wide open. A poll by the Catholic University for RTP, Antena 1, and Público indicates that Pedro Duarte, from the coalition of PSD, CDS, and Liberal Initiative, and Manuel Pizarro of the PS are separated by a very narrow margin. Chega is positioned in third place.

Poll Results Show Minimal Gap

According to the survey, Pedro Duarte secures 32% of voting intentions, closely followed by socialist candidate Manuel Pizarro with 29%. The difference is extremely tight and falls within the margin of error, making it impossible to determine a clear leader at this stage.

Other Parties and Voting Intentions

Chega appears to have secured third place with 10% of voting intentions. Livre and independent candidate Filipe Araújo each garner 6%, while the CDU receives 5%. Former mayor Nuno Cardoso does not exceed 4%, and the Left Bloc follows with 3%, potentially losing the single councilor it elected four years ago. ADN, PLS, Volt, and PTP all fall below 1%.

Undecided Voters and Technical Tie

A significant 14% of voters remain undecided. Without distributing these undecided votes, the direct voting intention shows a clear technical tie, with Pedro Duarte and Manuel Pizarro separated by just one percentage point, giving a slight edge to the PSD/CDS/IL candidate at 24%.

Unlikely Absolute Majority

The poll results, conducted two weeks before the elections, point to a tight race for Porto's City Hall. There are 13 council seats to be elected, with no prospects for an absolute majority. Vote distribution suggests the PSD/CDS/IL coalition could secure 4 to 6 seats, the PS 4 to 5 seats, and Chega 1 to 2 seats. Livre, Filipe Araújo, and the CDU might each get 0 to 1 seat.

Public Perception and Key Issues

Despite uncertainties, most respondents see the PS candidate as the likely winner (34%), followed by Pedro Duarte (26%), and only 5% believe Chega will win. When asked about Porto's main problems, two-thirds of respondents identified housing as the primary issue. Mobility and security were noted by about one in four, followed by health and immigration, while tourism was a concern for only 7%.

Technical Details of the Poll

This survey was conducted by CESOP–Portuguese Catholic University for RTP, Antena 1, and Público on September 27-28, 2025. It targeted eligible voters in Porto municipality, with 1,163 valid responses and a 43% response rate. The maximum margin of error is 2.8% at a 95% confidence level.